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live
MINMinnesota Twins45%
SEASeattle Mariners55%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
MIN45%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
SEA55%ML -140

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.4 pts

Model's 8.89 total is 1.9 runs above market's 7.0 at T-Mobile (PF 0.855), flagging structural error. Park factor drives -0.378 SHAP for totals; model underweights pitcher park. Bradley 10.37 K/9, Kirby 8.03 K/9 both solid. SEA offense is worst in sample at 3.5 RPG. Market's 7.0 is right; lean under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K6.6
Best price at 6.56.5O -110 fanatics / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.577%
O 5.563%
O 6.548%
O 7.534%
O 8.522%
O 9.514%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -111 fanduel / U -101 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -140MIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total