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MIN 6 / SEA 7
MINMinnesota Twins45%
SEASeattle Mariners55%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
MIN45%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SEA55%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts

Model's 8.89 total is 1.9 runs above market's 7.0 at T-Mobile (PF 0.855), flagging structural error. Park factor drives -0.378 SHAP for totals; model underweights pitcher park. Bradley 10.37 K/9, Kirby 8.03 K/9 both solid. SEA offense is worst in sample at 3.5 RPG. Market's 7.0 is right; lean under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%under
O 3.588%under
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 betonlineag / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -140MIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total