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CIN 5 / SEA 3
CINCincinnati Reds54%
SEASeattle Mariners46%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterBrady SingerConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
SEAHome starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
CIN54%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA46%ML -168

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.1 pts

Model has CIN at 54.5% but market heavily favors SEA at 58.6% implied. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.855) plus Hancock's 3.17 ERA in 99+ IP argues for home side and under. Model's 8.10 total vs market 8.0 is tight, but park factor should suppress scoring further.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brady SingerCIN starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 betrivers / U -111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -168CIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total