MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / SEA 3MINMinnesota Twins47%
SEASeattle Mariners53%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterZebby MatthewsProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerProbable
MIN47%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SEA53%ML -165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -165MIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total