MLB / mlb / live
TOR 0 / SEA 4TORToronto Blue Jays44%
SEASeattle Mariners56%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
SEAHome starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
TOR44%ML -104
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
SEA56%ML -114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -160 betmgm / U +128 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +111 draftkings / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-104 / -114TOR / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total