MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / SEA 0TORToronto Blue Jays53%
SEASeattle Mariners47%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan CeaseProbable
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
SEAHome starterLuis CastilloProbable
TOR53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
SEA47%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K8.1Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -162 fanduel / U +126 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 7.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.580%over
O 6.568%over
O 7.555%over
O 8.542%over
O 9.530%under
O 10.521%under
O 11.513%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Luis CastilloSEA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110TOR / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total