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LAA 2 / SEA 6
LAALos Angeles Angels54%
SEASeattle Mariners46%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
LAA54%ML +170
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
SEA46%ML -201

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap17.9 pts

Model has LAA at 53.6% but market implies SEA 66.7% — a 13-point disagreement favoring the home side. Kirby (3.94 ERA, 96 IP) vs Johnson (8.84 ERA, 19.3 IP) is a major mismatch the model underweights. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 suppresses runs. Model total 6.89 vs market 7.5 makes sense; lean under given park and Kirby's track record.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betonlineag / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+170 / -201LAA / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total