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BOS 1 / SEA 3
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
SEASeattle Mariners55%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
BOS45%ML +109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
SEA55%ML -130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.3 pts

Market and model align on SEA ~55-56%. Gilbert (3.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 86.7 IP) vs Tolle (2.93 ERA in 58.3 IP) qualifies as ace matchup. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor heavily suppresses scoring. Model's 7.76 total seems high against market 6.5 in extreme pitcher park with two quality arms. Under is the play.

extreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betmgm / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+109 / -130BOS / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -125 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total