MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / SEA 3BALBaltimore Orioles43%
SEASeattle Mariners57%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
BAL43%ML +112
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
SEA57%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 12 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -134BAL / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total