MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / SEA 8NYMNew York Mets42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterHuascar Brazobán
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLogan Gilbert
NYM42%ML +128
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.2 pts
Away pitcher is TBD so model is using fallback stats; total prediction is structurally unreliable. T-Mobile Park factor of 0.855 argues under vs market 7.5. Model at 58.1% vs market 57.8% is tight convergence on SEA; Gilbert's 11.81 K/9 in limited IP supports home side but small sample. Defer to market on moneyline, lean under on total given extreme park.
pitcher data fallbackextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152NYM / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total