MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / SEA 5ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
ARI40%ML +129
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SEA60%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.1 pts
Model projects 8.74 runs at T-Mobile (PF 0.855), market sets 7.0. Extreme pitcher's park plus Woo's 3.0 ERA/13.5 K/9 dominance argues sharply under. Nelson's 7.71 ERA is bad but ARI offense (.564 OPS) can't exploit it in this venue. Model overweight on total; SEA side reasonable at 60% vs market 58.6%.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+129 / -154ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total