MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / SEA 5ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
ARI40%ML +129
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
SEA60%ML -154
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts
Model projects 8.74 runs at T-Mobile (PF 0.855), market sets 7.0. Extreme pitcher's park plus Woo's 3.0 ERA/13.5 K/9 dominance argues sharply under. Nelson's 7.71 ERA is bad but ARI offense (.564 OPS) can't exploit it in this venue. Model overweight on total; SEA side reasonable at 60% vs market 58.6%.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+129 / -154ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total