MLB / mlb / live
ARI 2 / SEA 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryce Miller
ARI40%ML +120
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
SEA60%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.7 pts
Model predicts 9.12 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.6 gap in a 0.855 park factor venue. T-Mobile suppresses scoring; model is overweight on recent Seattle home runs. Market at 58% home, model 60.2%, both favor SEA but gap not actionable. Strong under lean given extreme pitcher park.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -144ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -118
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total