MLB / mlb / live
CHW 4 / SEA 5CHWChicago White Sox42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean Burke
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
CHW42%ML +122
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -144
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.1 pts
Model and market converge exactly at 58% on SEA. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample; Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP equally thin. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (0.855) argues under vs market 7.5. Model total 8.92 ignores park context—structural miss. offense_defense_mismatch flags CHW despite better record.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+122 / -144CHW / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -122
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total