MLB / mlb / live
ARI 6 / SEA 7ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac Gallen
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
ARI40%ML +120
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SEA60%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.7 pts
Market at SEA -145 (58.1% implied) vs model 60.2% is tight. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) strongly favors under; model's 8.85 total is 1.85 runs above market 7.0. Kirby (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 60 IP) is elite; Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 40 IP is small-sample noise but he's proven. Extreme park + ace Kirby argues under 7.0, not 8.85. Pass on side, lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total