MLB / mlb / live
CHW 2 / SEA 1CHWChicago White Sox46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryce Miller
CHW46%ML +127
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SEA54%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.1 pts
Model has SEA 53.6%, market implies 57.8% — both near coin flip. CHW scores 5.7 RPG vs SEA 3.9 RPG, yet model picks the worse offense at home. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (PF 0.855) argues under on the 8.92 total, market set at 7.5. Miller lacks IP/ERA data so pitcher comparison unclear. Lean CHW on offense_defense_mismatch, lean under on extreme_park.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+127 / -150CHW / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total