MLB / mlb / live
CHW 1 / SEA 6CHWChicago White Sox42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterNoah Schultz
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
CHW42%ML +146
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.5 pts
Model 57.5% vs market 60.3% on SEA is modest disagreement. Schultz missing all rate stats is a data gap. T-Mobile 0.855 park factor plus extreme_park flag argues under. Model total 9.04 vs market 7.0 is suspicious given venue context. Pass on side, lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+146 / -175CHW / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total