MLB / mlb / live
SDP 8 / SEA 3SDPSan Diego Padres42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterLucas Giolito
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
SDP42%ML +136
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.2 pts
Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Giolito has missing stats. T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855) suppresses runs heavily. Model total 8.92 vs market 7.5 is a 1.42-run gap—model likely overweighting SDP's poor offense (.547 OPS). Market implies SEA 59.8%, model 58.1%—convergence on side but total divergence screams under.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+136 / -162SDP / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total