MLB / mlb / live
SDP 8 / SEA 3SDPSan Diego Padres42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterLucas Giolito
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
SDP42%ML +136
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts
Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Giolito has missing stats. T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855) suppresses runs heavily. Model total 8.92 vs market 7.5 is a 1.42-run gap—model likely overweighting SDP's poor offense (.547 OPS). Market implies SEA 59.8%, model 58.1%—convergence on side but total divergence screams under.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+136 / -162SDP / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total