MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / SEA 4SDPSan Diego Padres42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLogan Gilbert
SDP42%ML +140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -167
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model has SEA 57.5%, market implies 60.5% — reasonable alignment. Gilbert's 5.06 ERA in 5.1 IP is tiny sample; Buehler stats are null. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 is extreme pitcher park. Model total 8.96 vs market 7.0 is a 1.96-run gap; lean under with market given park suppression and uncertain pitcher data.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -167SDP / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total