MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / SEA 0SDPSan Diego Padres46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterRandy Vásquez
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
SDP46%ML +115
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA54%ML -138
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts
Both pitchers show 6.0 IP and 0.00 ERA over 10 starts—physically impossible. Data quality flags 'full' but these are clearly placeholder/corrupted stats. Model predicts 8.83 runs vs market 7.0 in a 0.855 park factor venue with supposed ace matchup. Without real pitcher data, cannot assess either side. Lean under on extreme park alone.
total far from marketextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -138SDP / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total