MLB / mlb / live
ATL 4 / SEA 5ATLAtlanta Braves42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterJR Ritchie
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLogan Gilbert
ATL42%ML +130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.7 pts
Model has SEA 60.2% vs market 57.5%, but ATL is 25-10 with 6.2 RPG while SEA is 16-19 at 4.7 RPG. Ritchie data missing is a major blind spot. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 argues under market 7.5. Model overweighting SEA park advantage while ignoring offensive quality gap.
pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -154ATL / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total