MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / SEA 2KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth Lugo
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
KCR42%ML +121
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts
Model at 57.5% vs market 56.4% on SEA—barely any comparison. Both starters show 0.00 ERA in 6 IP which is obviously tiny samples, no persistent signal. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor plus ace matchup flag argue under on 7.5. Model's 8.86 total projection ignores extreme pitcher park context. SHAP shows park_factor as top total driver (-0.685) yet model still overshoots market by 1.36 runs.
extreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+121 / -145KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -108
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total