MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / SEA 2KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth Lugo
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
KCR42%ML +121
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.9 pts
Model at 57.5% vs market 56.4% on SEA—barely any comparison. Both starters show 0.00 ERA in 6 IP which is obviously tiny samples, no persistent signal. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor plus ace matchup flag argue under on 7.5. Model's 8.86 total projection ignores extreme pitcher park context. SHAP shows park_factor as top total driver (-0.685) yet model still overshoots market by 1.36 runs.
extreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+121 / -145KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -108
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total