MLB / mlb / live
KCR 4 / SEA 1KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterKris Bubic
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLuis Castillo
KCR42%ML +105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.9 pts
Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes this unpickable on moneyline despite Castillo's reputation and T-Mobile's extreme park factor (0.855). Market total at 8.0 is reasonable; model's 8.97 overestimates given the park suppression. Lean under on total based on venue alone.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -124KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total