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LAD 5 / SFG 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterJack DreyerConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterCarson SeymourConfirmed
LAD55%ML -248
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG45%ML +200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

LAD (99-62, 4.7 RPG, .743 OPS) is clearly the better club against a Giants offense at 3.5 RPG, and Seymour's 4.70 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP over just 3 starts is soft. But the Dodgers' starter is TBD with fallback stats (1.90 ERA line likely not the actual arm), it's a final-week game where seeding may dictate rest, and no market odds are available. Lean only; no total view without a line.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Jack DreyerLAD starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%over
O 2.538%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Carson SeymourSFG starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-248 / +200LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total