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scheduled
LADLos Angeles Dodgers47%
SFGSan Francisco Giants53%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterTarik SkubalProbable
Model pickSFG moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterYunior MarteProbable
LAD47%ML -328
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability27%Selected moneyline pick
SFG53%ML +258

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time25.9 pts

Model has SFG at 52.6% vs market 23.4% — a 29-point gap it cannot justify. Skubal (2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) faces a 3.7 RPG Giants offense, while Marte's 0.33 IP signals a bullpen game. Model also picks the worse team on both record and offense. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) plus Skubal argues under the 7.5, against the model's 8.28.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Tarik SkubalLAD starter / away
Projected K5.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.520%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Yunior MarteSFG starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%
O 2.559%
O 3.537%
O 4.521%
O 5.510%
O 6.54%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-328 / +258LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -116
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total