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ARI 7 / SFG 1
ARIArizona Diamondbacks59%
SFGSan Francisco Giants41%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
SFGHome starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
ARI59%ML -120
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SFG41%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

ARI's 72-64 record and 4.8 RPG top SFG's 55-80 and 4.2, so the model's side is defensible. But the Giants' starter is TBD (fallback stats, 4.54 ERA over 37.7 IP), Kelly carries a 5.35 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, and no market is available. Model's 9.15 total looks high for Oracle Park at 0.906 PF, but without a line I take no total position.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -168 draftkings / U +132 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 2.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%over
O 2.544%over
O 3.523%over
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +102ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total