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COL 13 / SFG 7
COLColorado Rockies45%
SFGSan Francisco Giants55%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
SFGHome starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
COL45%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG55%ML -128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.1 pts

Model (55.1%) and market (55.2%) align on SFG, so no comparison dispute on the side; Tidwell's 2.78 ERA over 4 starts is thin but Hughes at 5.61 ERA/1.28 WHIP is the weaker end. The model's 9.11-run total ignores Oracle Park's 0.906 factor and two of the league's worst offenses (2.7 and 3.6 RPG); under 8 is the better side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -157 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -116 draftkings / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+112 / -128COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -114
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total