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COL 1 / SFG 7
COLColorado Rockies39%
SFGSan Francisco Giants61%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline61%Model 20260810_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
COL39%ML +146
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SFG61%ML -175

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.8 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (60.3%) agree on SFG, and the pitching gap supports it: Webb at 3.59 ERA/1.08 WHIP over 133 IP versus Lorenzen at 6.83 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP. Model's 9.00-run total sits 1.5 above the 7.5 line and ignores Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor; SFG's 2.5 RPG offense also caps upside. Under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.562%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+146 / -175COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total