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HOU 2 / SFG 1
HOUHouston Astros53%
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterBryan KingConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
SFGHome starterAdrian HouserConfirmed
HOU53%ML -146
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SFG47%ML +125

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan KingHOU starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Adrian HouserSFG starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 fanduel / U -163 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-146 / +125HOU / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -118
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total