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COL 2 / SFG 4
COLColorado Rockies39%
SFGSan Francisco Giants61%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
COL39%ML +125
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SFG61%ML -150

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.0 pts

Model has SFG at 60.7% vs market 57.7% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers are struggling (Mahle 5.70 ERA, Freeland 7.46 ERA) in extreme pitcher park (0.906 PF). Model total 9.81 vs market 8.5 is significant gap favoring over, supported by weak pitching. Pass on side, lean over on total given pitcher quality.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Tyler MahleSFG starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -152 betrivers / U +130 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -150COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total