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scheduled
COLColorado Rockies39%
SFGSan Francisco Giants61%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle FreelandProbable
Model pickSFG moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterTyler MahleProbable
COL39%ML +127
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SFG61%ML -151

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.9 pts

Model has SFG at 60.7% vs market 57.7% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers are struggling (Mahle 5.70 ERA, Freeland 7.46 ERA) in extreme pitcher park (0.906 PF). Model total 9.81 vs market 8.5 is significant gap favoring over, supported by weak pitching. Pass on side, lean over on total given pitcher quality.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tyler MahleSFG starter / home
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -143 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+127 / -151COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total