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TOR 9 / SFG 3
TORToronto Blue Jays40%
SFGSan Francisco Giants60%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterSpencer MilesConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
TOR40%ML -118
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
SFG60%ML 0

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.3 pts

Away pitcher TBD is a structural hole; model used fallback stats (106 IP composite). Market slightly favors TOR at -111 vs model's 52.7% SFG. Oracle Park factor 0.906 argues under but model at 8.2 vs market 8.0 is tight. TOR's 2.4 RPG seems implausibly low given .786 OPS; pass on total without knowing the actual starter.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Spencer MilesTOR starter / away
Projected K2.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -140 betmgm1 book at this line
Model over 3.521%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.567%under
O 2.541%under
O 3.521%under
O 4.59%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 fanatics / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / 0TOR / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total