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MLB / mlb / live

ATL 2 / SFG 3
ATLAtlanta Braves58%
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterChris SaleConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SFGHome starterRobbie RayConfirmed
ATL58%ML -184
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
SFG42%ML +153

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.9 pts

ATL implied at 71% by Pinnacle vs model's 58%. Chris Sale (2.14 ERA, 10.61 K/9) is dominant; SFG offense is league-worst at 1.4 RPG/.388 OPS. Model total of 9.45 runs in a 0.91 park factor is 2 runs over market—likely overweighting short-term offense noise. Oracle Park + Sale argues under 7.5.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -150 bovada / U +120 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 7.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySFG starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 fanduel / U -158 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-184 / +153ATL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total