MLB / mlb / live
TOR 1 / SFG 10TORToronto Blue Jays44%
SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterLanden RouppConfirmed
TOR44%ML -110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
SFG56%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +135 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108TOR / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-173)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total