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ATL 3 / SFG 1
ATLAtlanta Braves48%
SFGSan Francisco Giants52%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonald
ATL48%ML -124
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
SFG52%ML +104

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.8 pts

Home pitcher TBD is a major structural issue; model used fallback data (5.49 ERA over 62 IP). ATL significantly better offense (0.789 OPS vs 0.388) and record (46-33 vs 31-49). Oracle Park (0.906 PF) suppresses runs. Market implies ATL 52.4%, model has SFG 51.7% — thin comparison flips on pitcher resolution. Total 7.15 vs market 7.5 reasonable given park factor; lean under.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 2.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-124 / +104ATL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total