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OAK 1 / SFG 3
OAKOakland Athletics53%
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterAaron CivaleConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
SFGHome starterRobbie RayConfirmed
OAK53%ML +121
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
SFG47%ML -147

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.2 pts

Model favors OAK 53.4% vs market's 47.4% for home—a 6pp gap without structural flags to explain it. Oracle's 0.906 park factor supports under on the 8.5 total. SFG's .388 OPS (77 games) is catastrophically bad; OAK's offense is mediocre but functional. Ray's 4.07 ERA over 79.7 IP is real; Civale's 4.91/1.59 WHIP is hittable but SFG can't hit anyone. Lean OAK, lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron CivaleOAK starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 betmgm / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySFG starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -155 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.516%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+121 / -147OAK / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total