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CHC 6 / SFG 1
CHCChicago Cubs46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonald
CHC46%ML -119
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.6 pts

Model has SFG 53.5% vs market 46.3%, a 7.2pp gap favoring the home side. But CHC is 36-34 with superior .694 OPS vs SFG's .388, and Ben Brown's 1.74 ERA in 57 IP is legitimate (not a 3-start fluke). Oracle Park factor 0.906 + Brown's form argues under the 8.0 market total. Model overweighting home short-term offense rolling metrics per SHAP; taking CHC.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Ben BrownCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U -103 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanduel / U -114 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-119 / +100CHC / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total