MLB / mlb / live
WSN 10 / SFG 11WSNWashington Nationals59%
SFGSan Francisco Giants41%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterFoster Griffin
Model pickWSN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
WSN59%ML -106
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SFG41%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts
Model has WSN at 58.6% but market implies a near coin flip (SFG 51.6%). Griffin's 3.63 ERA over 72 IP is solid; Ray's 4.12 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in Oracle Park (PF 0.906) suggests vulnerability. SFG offense at 0.388 OPS is catastrophically bad—likely a data error or anomaly. Model total of 9.02 vs market 8.0 in a pitcher park suggests over lean, but treat with skepticism given sample noise.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -110WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total