MLB / mlb / live
ARI 7 / SFG 5ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterEduardo Rodriguez
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTyler Mahle
ARI46%ML -105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Model likes SFG at 53.6% vs market 48.8%, but ARI has better record (28-25 vs 22-32), better offense (5.7 RPG, .564 OPS vs 5.0 RPG, .388 OPS). Rodriguez's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise, Mahle 4.50 ERA in 4.0 IP equally thin. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) suppresses runs but model total 9.05 vs market 8.0 is a 1+ run gap on unreliable pitcher data. Lean ARI on fundamentals.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -115ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total