MLB / mlb / live
ARI 3 / SFG 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMichael Soroka
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonald
ARI46%ML -114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.6 pts
Model has SFG 53.6% vs market 45.6%, a 8pp gap. ARI is 29-25 with 6.2 RPG vs SFG 22-33 at 5.3 RPG. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) suppresses scoring. Model's 8.9 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.4-run miss, likely park misweighting. Lean ARI and under.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-114 / -104ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total