MLB / mlb / live
WSN 4 / SFG 3WSNWashington Nationals46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterRichard Lovelady
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLogan Webb
WSN46%ML +130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.7 pts
Model sees a coin flip (50.6% SFG) but market has Giants at 59%. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Webb 10.8, Mikolas 7.2) in only 5 IP each—small sample noise. Washington's .820 OPS vs SF's .388 is massive; model underweighting that offensive gap. Oracle Park suppresses but can't save 10+ ERA arms. Lean WSN, over 8.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -154WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total