MLB / mlb / live
CHW 5 / SFG 8CHWChicago White Sox59%
SFGSan Francisco Giants41%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterNoah Schultz
Model pickCHW moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
CHW59%ML +105
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
SFG41%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap11.8 pts
Away pitcher Noah Schultz has no IP/ERA/K9/WHIP data despite 7 starts—likely bulk reliever or data error. Model calls CHW 58.6% but market has SFG slight favorite at 52.1%. Ray's 5.1 IP over 10 starts signals opener usage. Oracle Park (PF 0.906) and missing pitcher context make both sides and total unreadable.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -124CHW / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total