MLB / mlb / live
PIT 6 / SFG 7PITPittsburgh Pirates56%
SFGSan Francisco Giants44%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba Chandler
Model pickPIT moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTyler Mahle
PIT56%ML +100
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
SFG44%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.6 pts
Away pitcher Chandler has null IP/ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged — data integrity issue makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model leans PIT but market is near coin-flip. SFG offense is historically bad (2.6 RPG, .388 OPS) but extreme park suppression (0.906) and missing pitcher stats create too much uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118PIT / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total