MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / SFG 10CHWChicago White Sox52%
SFGSan Francisco Giants48%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterBryan Hudson
Model pickCHW moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterAdrian Houser
CHW52%ML -104
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
SFG48%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.1 pts
CHW favored by offensive gap (5.6 RPG vs 3.8, .729 OPS vs .388) but Hudson's 0.2 IP sample is microscopic. Market leans SFG at home despite Oracle's 0.906 park factor. Model and market nearly flat (52% vs 47% CHW). Houser lacks ERA data. Too much uncertainty for conviction.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-104 / -112CHW / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -122 / U +100
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total