MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / SFG 5PITPittsburgh Pirates49%
SFGSan Francisco Giants51%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterCarmen Mlodzinski
Model pickSFG moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
PIT49%ML -101
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SFG51%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.5 pts
Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.63-run structural miss. SFG starter is TBD fallback, Oracle runs at 0.91 PF, and SFG offense is catastrophic (2.4 RPG, .388 OPS). Model picked the home side despite PIT's better record and offense. Lean PIT and under.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-101 / -120PIT / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
27 books25 ML20 run line17 total