MLB / mlb / live
SDP 10 / SFG 5SDPSan Diego Padres53%
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLogan Webb
SDP53%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
SFG47%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.6 pts
Webb's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is not a real 10.8 pitcher (tiny sample), but he is clearly struggling. Buehler has zero resolved stats—data_quality is 'full' but all stats are null, which is effectively a fallback situation. SFG offense is dire (.388 OPS, 2.8 RPG). Model predicts 9.0 total vs market 7.0; Oracle Park (0.91 PF) + missing Buehler context = lean under with market.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132SDP / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total