MLB / mlb / live
SDP 10 / SFG 5SDPSan Diego Padres53%
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLogan Webb
SDP53%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SFG47%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts
Webb's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is not a real 10.8 pitcher (tiny sample), but he is clearly struggling. Buehler has zero resolved stats—data_quality is 'full' but all stats are null, which is effectively a fallback situation. SFG offense is dire (.388 OPS, 2.8 RPG). Model predicts 9.0 total vs market 7.0; Oracle Park (0.91 PF) + missing Buehler context = lean under with market.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132SDP / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total