MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / SFG 6MIAMiami Marlins46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury Pérez
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
MIA46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML -111
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.0 pts
Model has SFG 53.6%, market is dead even at 50.2%. SFG offense is league-worst at .388 OPS and 3.4 RPG. MIA's .774 OPS is strong. Model's +0.21 margin on the worse offense flags offense_defense_mismatch. Oracle Park factor of 0.906 pushes total down, but model at 8.89 vs market 7.5 is a 1.4-run gap—lean over given MIA's bats.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -111MIA / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -113
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total