MLB / mlb / live
MIA 3 / SFG 6MIAMiami Marlins46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterMax Meyer
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLanden Roupp
MIA46%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.7 pts
Model total 9.18 vs market 7.5 is a 1.68-run gap at Oracle (PF 0.906). Meyer's 5.4 ERA in 5.0 IP is micro-sample noise; Roupp has no ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts. Missing pitcher stats plus extreme park underweight by model argues market has this right. Take the under lean on structure alone.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -136MIA / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total