sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 7 / SDP 10
ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
SDPSan Diego Padres47%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterTaylor Clarke
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
ARI53%ML +102
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SDP47%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts

ARI's starter is TBD with fallback stats, so the model's 53% on Arizona rests on an unresolved arm; market has San Diego a slight favorite at -110. Buehler's 4.56 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are unimpressive, so no conviction either way. Model total of 9.01 vs a 7.5 line is a 1.5-run gap driven partly by away_pitcher_days_rest on a pitcher who isn't named; Petco at 0.962 park factor argues under.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -124ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total