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ARI 4 / SDP 9
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
SDPSan Diego Padres45%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMichael SorokaConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
SDPHome starterRandy VásquezConfirmed
ARI55%ML -154
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SDP45%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts

Market (-140) and model (54.8%) agree on Arizona despite SDP's better record. Soroka's 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 8.89 K/9 clearly outclass Vasquez's 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 5.68 K/9. Petco at 0.962 PF plus the model's 9.11 total sitting well above the 8.0 line argues under.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 fanatics / U -135 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Randy VásquezSDP starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +118 betonlineag / U -152 mybookieag2 books at this line
Model over 2.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%over
O 2.543%under
O 3.523%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-154 / +130ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-131)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -116 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total