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MIA 3 / SDP 7
MIAMiami Marlins39%
SDPSan Diego Padres61%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
MIA39%ML +130
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SDP61%ML -154

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Model's 9.54 total sits 1.5+ above the market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), with Alcantara at 3.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 206 IP; that gap looks like a structural miss, so I'll take the under. On the side, model 61.4% vs market 56.9% is a small gap and Buehler's 4.58 ERA caps enthusiasm, so SDP is only a lean.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanduel / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 betonlineag / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+130 / -154MIA / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total