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MIA 2 / SDP 8
MIAMiami Marlins29%
SDPSan Diego Padres71%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
SDPHome starterNick PivettaConfirmed
MIA29%ML +170
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
SDP71%ML -205

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts

Model at 70.6% on SDP vs market's 63.9% implied — directionally aligned, so take the side without stretching. Petco's 0.962 park factor plus two starters at 3.55-3.60 ERA argues against the model's 8.57-run total; I'd take the under at 7.5. Pivetta's 25 IP across 10 starts is a thin workload sample, so his 11.16 K/9 is less predictive than it looks.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.9
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betonlineag / U -107 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nick PivettaSDP starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 betonlineag / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+170 / -205MIA / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -111
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total