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PIT 1 / SDP 0
PITPittsburgh Pirates49%
SDPSan Diego Padres51%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
PIT49%ML +112
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SDP51%ML -135

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model's 9.02-run total is over 2 runs above the 7.0 market line, an obvious structural miss: Petco plays at 0.962, King carries a 3.38 ERA/1.17 WHIP and Skenes an 11.07 K/9 with a 1.14 WHIP. Under is the cleaner side. On the moneyline the model is a coin flip (50.9%) against a 53.1% market number; slight preference for Pittsburgh at +109 with Skenes, but no conviction given PIT's 3.9 RPG.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -151 draftkings / U +122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+112 / -135PIT / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total